2 April 2012

The Future of Man and Earth 
and The Evolution of Ecology

Introduction

The future of Earth and humankind seem to be more uncertain, simultaneously more potentially disastrous and promising, than any time in all recorded history. Questions revolve around the interplay and evolution of ecology, anthropology, sociology, technology, politics, and many other inter-related sciences and studies and the reality of the world they will define. Biological invasions, climate change, pollution, war, resource management, and extinctions are just a few of the complex issues behind the threats on Earth’s ecosystems. So many diverse and complex issues are in play that discerning a safe path to a bright future seems not only difficult and elusive, but impossible. To understand what the future holds, we must take a good and honest look our collective past. 
We, as a species, have had more impact upon the Earth than almost all other species combined. Until somewhat recently, our technology was relatively primitive and as such ecological consequences of our human activity was accordingly limited, and not so pervasive that the Earth's ecological systems could not recover from damages and disruptions or alterations man made. Starting with the birth of the Industrial Age, the scope of the use and mis-use of resources and levels of pollution and ecological changes have exploded in such a manner that the impact of man's activity are now often toxic, all-encompassing, permanent, wide-spread, and generate secondary disasters and disruptions that now endanger the entire planet and the future of humanity. The subsequent discussion presents some of many possible ideas and assumptions, good and bad, of what our, and the Earth's, future holds. By keeping possibility, both good and bad, in mind man may be able to choose better paths and avoid mistakes which threaten the quality, and the existence, of Earth and man's future. The first assumption is that the Earth will continue, but whether or not man or most unique species, or even life, remains on it is the question only the future itself holds.

 Looking Backward and Other Perspectives and Baselines 

Sol, Earth's star and sun, is one of anywhere from 200,000,000 to 400,000,000 stars in the Milky Way Galaxy. Astronomers estimate that there are approximately 100,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 galaxies in the Universe. So if you multiply those two numbers together, you get between 1022 and 1024 stars in the Universe. This means that there are 10 sextillion and 1 septillion stars in the Universe. These numbers should provide a humbling perspective. In the grand scheme of things man, and Earth, and The Milky Way, are somewhat common and insignificant. The Universe is about 13.7+/- billion years old, and Earth and our sun about 4.7+/- years old. Man has a written recorded history of several thousand years, and has known and had a real grasp of, and as to, the detailed facts which somewhat accurately explain the nature of the universe, and reality, for this fraction of time. We, as a species, have a history of vanity wherein we assumed were and are special and unique, as if the laws of nature and the Universe do not fully apply to us. It is a fact that most people on Earth have no real understanding of the workings of nature or facts of history and/or science. Many people believe in folk tales, superstitions and fantasy based explanations as to man's existence and choose to deny clear facts, evidence, or proof that their beliefs and understandings may be wrong. Humanity attempts to absolve itself from responsibilities by citing God, gods, angles, or a Devil or demons, or political or cultural values or historical norms, ideologies, and values as the cause for all the good or bad in the world. Misuse of our shared habitat of Earth, it's ecology, and the actions of man, remain systematically ignored or denied. This paradigm must evolve. 
The ability of man to deny responsibility or find a reason to justify adverse or wrongful actions are related to how aware and educated we humans are. It is established that the more educated and highly educated citizens a society has the more rational and moral the actions of that society generally are. In simple terms, a well rounded and unbiased education creates in the person who attains it a social conscience and morality and an ability to understand without denial individual responsibility and a willingness to take political, religious, and social and cultural stands that are more beneficial to Earth and fellow man and creatures. Individuals and/or groups will cherry pick or censor data and/or information, contrary to established or desired beliefs or positions, and it is known that man will often even knowingly choose a lie rather than accept that an established or desired view, belief or opinion may be wrong. 
Education, when well rounded and based upon verifiable facts, simply creates both a social and personal climate that result in people acting responsibly and taking action(s) against those things which may be or are detrimental to society, Earth and its ecology, or mans' progress. 
In oversimplified terms, a society which supports and fosters education and higher learning gives to those members of that society the capacity and environment in which to develop the type of social conscience which not only allows, but promotes progressive thought, creates systems and practices that promote responsible action, and this in areas such as human relations, politics, ecology, and development and implementation of technology. Humanity's future well being, as well as Earth's, is directly linked to how aware and educated our societies are and will be. Man's activity, which here is defined as how man uses or abuses resources and the environment, is based upon the laws and practices of our individual and collective societies. These laws and practices are generated by and spring from common consensus. A society that supports, through law, policy, or economic support, progressive change or action contributes to the overall health of Earth and man. Those that do not, even if they are neutral, allow those things which hurt and hinder Earth and man. The matter becomes as simple as this (explained). The problem is compounded where societies and individuals are doing both positive and negative things. 
Now that a historical context and general perspective have been established, discussion can be submitted that, while incomplete, can generate assumptions of and for possible futures with problems defined and potential solutions offered. The incomplete nature of these scenarios can not be overstressed, but the general nature of some of the chosen possibilities discussed, when viewed in totality, should give a comprehensive vision of some possible futures and what kind of sound, comprehensive and pervasive logical reasoning and direction humankind needs to adopt to create a sustainable and prosperous future. By looking backward we can make reasonable assumptions as to what our future may hold, and hopefully avert at least some of the destructive birth pains that come with the evolution of communal societies. We must remain diligently mindful of the contexts in which we view our situation and process the facts and arguments presented. Our significance is localized to our galaxy, solar system, planet, nation, community, and finally our homes. We have a life as a species, as individual populations, and finally individuals. Our history will not continue if we do not continue, and the shape of the history we will write is so very unclear.

Energy and Resource Management  

Technologies advance, populations continue to rise, and development of land and resources expand wherein the recent and current levels of each are unsustainable. We define these things combined as “growth”, and in the past where such growth was much slower there was an ability to better manage such growth, but due to ideologies and philosophies that shaped commerce and politics, growth occurred without much, or at a minimum, proper direction and restraint. It is the nature of certain types of growth, such as industrial or population growth, which would include things like harvesting of whales for whale oil or forests for lumber, to run with minimal restraints, regulations, controls, and checks and balances until they have become economically unsustainable, until something more advanced or profitable is either widely available or favorable, or until there is some sort of public or political outcry against one set of practices in favor of another. There is no reason to assume that this behavior of humanity will change in the near future. We can assume that this law of “growth” applies to energy use. Energy, no matter if that energy was wind, wood and whale oil; or coal and steam power or hydrological; or fuel oil or nuclear; or solar, geothermal, tidal, biofuels, hydrogen or again, wind, is the driving force/limiting factor of growth, development and advancement of humanity. It also generates complexity which is a component of civilization building. 
We cannot look at energy by itself, nor can we look at population growth, advancements in technology, or any other single factors without being cognizant of the matrix they all form. Energy use, technology, energy resource availability, infrastructure, distribution networks, demand, costs, and many other factors merge to create a level of available energy that fuels various forms of growth and sustains levels already reached, and also acts as a limiting factor for such growth. We therefore, for a sustainable future, must recognize that in the past, due to infancy of technology and much smaller populations, that demands for energy, as well as the ability to produce energy, were much less. The more civilizations grow, normally, the more energy they consume and require to maintain themselves. We therefore assume that growth as defined will continue to increase demands for energy, and when we realize that our cheapest and most readily available sources of energy have been stored by nature in the form of oil and coal, and these are resources that have been exploited for such a period of time that the cheapest and most easily extracted of these reserves are depleted or greatly reduced, Simply put, the cheapest, easiest forms of energy available are gone. 
In the past, where wood gave way to coal, which gave way to oil, or where whale oil gave way to kerosene, one fuel, or energy, source was being replaced by another; which was normally more available and/or economical. Due to the level of population and growth we have attained we have reached the end of vast sums of cheap energy. The demand continues to rise, even with advancements in conservation technologies, because populations rise and those things which consume vast amounts of energy are required and/or highly desired by those populations.
The situation has become one or what has been termed “first” world, “second” or “emerging” world, and “third” world. The first world wishes to maintain the standard of living it has become accustomed to, and even with reductions in energy use through conservation technology, first world energy use and demands remain high. The second world, or emerging world, has become a lucrative place for world corporations to do business, and there has been a shift in industrial production to these nations, and as a result standards of living are on the rise and energy demand is increasing at an accelerated rate. 
In the third world, energy is increasing due to per-industrialization demands. Many corporations are also expanding in these nations as well, and while they are not so much consumer nations as of yet there is increased energy demands there as we.. The first, second, and third world demands for energy are accelerating because of industrialization and population demands upon resources of energy; and current technology, infrastructure, and socioeconomic and political concerns, and all practical forms of energy are, for the most part, known and have have moved beyond their most economical forms of availability. This is as simple as supply and demand realities. In the past century or so we have used up about half of all the readily available crude oil reserves, and the shale and tar oils are difficult and costly to process. Oil has been, for this same past century, the primary source of fuel for transportation and industry, bleeding over to even agriculture to farming based on oil based fertilizers and pesticides. The ecological costs of oil and coal production and use will be discussed further later, but it should be stated here that while it has been known and understood by scientists, professionals, political bodies and industries involved that oil and coal production was and is not sustainable, little has been done to shift from these sources and conserve existing reserves. It is apparent that the use of coal and oil have not yet reached a tipping point wherein it is more economically sound, or where there is enough public or political will, to shift from these energy sources. The example of Brazil should be pointed out. In the early 70's the “oil crisis”, which was in part created by oil companies and OPEC to raise crude oil prices, caused Brazil to shift to sugar based production of ethanol. Forty years later Brazil imports no oil, is energy self-sufficient to a great degree, is therefore producing energy in a much more carbon neutral fashion. While Brazil also has negative issues to content with, such as deforestation in the tropical rainforests, it is ahead of most nations in reducing its' crude oil consumption. In contract, the United States produces ethanol from corn, which is not efficient and greatly increases the price of corn, which is a foodstuff. It is apparent that oil companies have lobbied laws which have constrained or prohibited sound energy laws and policies. 
In the late 70's President Jimmy Carter warned America about the dangers of unconstrained energy use, especially oil consumption. Oil and oil related energy companies exercised political influence and resisted change. The rise of “conservative” political leaders heavily funded by large corporations with a vested economic interest in maintaining crude oil consumption and influence on media sustained and increased the socioeconomic systems that demand high oil use, and these interests also worked against alternative and renewable fuels. In the 1980's President Ronald Reagan and “conservatives” worked against wind and solar technology. President Bill Clinton called upon the American Automotive Industry to produce alternative fuel and electric cars, but did not follow through, and neither did US auto manufactures who made significant progress in fuel efficient cars, and under President George W. Bush large, wasteful SUV's and personal trucks became commonplace. Under Bush gasoline in the United States reached over $4/gallon in 2008, and dropped by half that amount following a financial collapse caused by large banks and financial institutions. Under President Obama, who has also called for drastic changes in how energy is consumed and used, conservative political interests and large corporations are still resisting forward thinking change. The major difference as the world population reaches 7 Billion, and the Middle-East deals with instability and turmoil, and second to third world nations such as India and China go through rapid industrialization, is that supply is starting to far exceed demand. China and India are industrializing, building factories, infrastructure, energy and electric generating complexes, and adding cars and appliances at a faster pace than at any time in history, and even though much of this industrialization is, at times, is using cleaner forms of energy and are more efficient; the global spike in demand for resources and energy are accelerating and more quickly exhausting available supplies. 
Failure to prepare for the reaching of the tipping point will cripple any nation or society not ready for change. It is an unfolding reality that fuel prices will continue to rise, that many ecosystems will suffer due to high levels of Carbon in the atmosphere from oil and coal based energy, and that war and conflict over energy resources is more than likely. With agricultural production and distribution and commerce in general dependent upon energy primarily from oil, an economic crash or major disruption in energy production could cast the entire globe into a world wide depression, famine, or war. This is very likely unless the manner in which man does business changes drastically. 
The matrix of growth, energy, resources, or whatever we name it, must include a plan that regulates energy production, consumption, and use and development on a world wide basis. The shift from oil based transportation, coal based electric production, and other non-renewable sources of fuel must shift to renewable and non-carbon production of energy, such as wind, solar, and nuclear and Hydrogen. Many energy use reductions can be found in efficiency and conservation technologies and forms of sustainable use and recycling. What must be created is economic, political and social conscientiousness and willingness to craft, promote, and implement such changes. These changes will require not any single, but a myriad of progressions of technologies and attitudes that are rooted in world scale education, enlightenment, leadership, and implementation of new human behavior patterns. This will allow universal and comprehensive application of laws, regulations, and systems designed to foster non-destructive and sustainable use of energy and other resources designed to insure equity, compassion, and the well being of all of humanity and the Earth which sustains all living creatures and systems. 
There are some specific realities we must face, focus herein on energy compels us to look at forecasts and projections, the growth of world populations, The following graphs illustrate how humanity may be creating the climate for and causing in actuality a potential mass extinction event. We should first take a good look at world population and availability of resources, which drive energy production which is our first focal point. The first bar graph shows population growth, however event driven disasters and circumstances are not shown in this graph, and a global economic collapse, world war, natural disaster or pandemic could have devastating effect on world population. (web) The second graph is from 1972 Limits to Growth, printed using today's graphics by Charles Hall and John Day in "Revisiting Limits to Growth After Peak Oil" (http://www.esf.edu/efb/hall/2009-05Hall0327.pdf ) 


figures 1 & 2 

With these figures in mind, we must turn our attention to world energy demand. One can assume that a cheap and readily available supply of energy which would not easily be exhausted would have the ability to sustain various forms of growth, such as food production and consumer goods, and that this could also sustain the development of the second and third world, however this is not the reality we are faced with. The graph below shows clearly reduced production of fossil fuels. We must remember that this is not due to a desire by societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and non-renewable consumption, but moreso a lack of economically sound or available resources. In simple terms, the lumberjacks are running out of forests. 

Figure 3 

While we view a peak then a decline in carbon producing energy resource use, we do not see the drastic changes it is suggested herein that we need to become a sustainable civilization. The long term damages of prolonged CO2 emissions may negate these projections and have drastic consequences for the Earth as a whole. These projections, especially figure 2, forecast global collapse of industrial and agricultural output, severe shortages of resources, and while the population projection of figure 1 is optimistic and in conflict with figure 2, it is cited as a projection of the potential population and does not suggest how that population can be fed or sustained. 
It is clear that the Earth's population must be stabilized or reduced. The adverse effects of suggested disasters such as famine, war, or pandemic may be a mixed blessing, forcing upon humanity a sustainable population and a harsh lesson in resource management. To avert such a disaster, energy generation must become both sustainable with a large scale reduction in the amount of CO2 (greenhouse gasses) we produce. A wide variable which will be discussed in greater detail later is sea level rise, which will greatly reduce the amount of arable land for the production of foodstuffs. 
We will therefore venture into energy resources, starting with wind production. The graph below (web) shows onshore wind power potential. Wind technology is becoming increasingly more cost effective and the rate of its development and implementation is steadily growing (see figure 5). 

figure 4

The problem with wind generation is in location of resource and storage and transmission of energy generated. It is clear that vast distances exist where the wind is and where populations and demands reside and are located. Offshore generation is also exploitable, and the ecological problem of damage to avian populations has largely been resolved by larger, slow rotational windmills. Getting wind generated energy to demand areas is perhaps the biggest drawback, but possible solution may rest in the production of a storage and transport of a medium such as hydrogen.
It can be seen in figure 5 that wind production has grown fourfold in the past decade, and many developing nations are investing highly in wind. While most production is commercial, localized residential and small scale commercial production of wind power may greatly reduce the demand of production and transmission of electricity by large utilities. Europe, primarily Denmark, Germany and England, emerged as the first world leader in wind development, and while the United States has had the ability to be the forerunner in the second wave of wind development it appears China will become the leader in the second wave of development unless political climates and public pressure, including economic incentives, create that drive within the United Statres. 

figure 5 

Again, a major problem with wind power is that it only produces energy when wind is blowing, and unless it is married to a technology that can store energy created a secondary auxiliary energy source is essential. A mechanical or chemical energy storage system is required because batteries are simply not cost effective for this purpose. 
Solar is also a great option for a renewable low/no carbon source of energy. It suffers a similar problem with wind because it only produces energy when the sun shines, such as wind only when the wind is blowing. Figure 6 shows areas where solar can best be generated, and again, like wind, proximity to demand and populations is at issue, and again storage and transmission are critical for large scale development of this resource. 

Figure 6 

Figure 7 

Many forecasts do not show a significant increase in production of electric through solar, but where commercial generation of solar may not be very cost effective where solar is feasible, residential installations of solar units, including solar generation of hot water, may decrease energy demand. Solar is therefore not currently very cost effective because the return on monetary investment takes too long and initial costs are high, but as world energy markets and costs change and solar technology improves it should become more viable. 

Figure 8 

figure 9 

As can be deduced from figure 9, solar remains cost prohibitive in relation to other energy sources, but when it becomes most cost effective than coal or other conventional sources there should be a development boom in the technology and generate installation of solar units. Hydroelectric is currently somewhat a maxed out electric source. Hydroelectric basically can only be made more efficient and maximized, and in developing nations hydroelectric may cause environmental damage to ecosystems that make it undesirable. In Chile there is public opposition against new dams. Geothermal is also a potential source, and also share some of the same issues as wind and solar in that only certain regions are acceptable for the application of geothermal. A similar map to those above showing where geothermal is useable is redundant, but geothermal does hold some promise as one of many solutions to energy generation for the 21st Century. 

Figure 10 

All of these renewable sources, including those limited ones not discussed such as tidal, offer a wide range of options that can be implemented regionally, in tandem and symbiotically, and in augmentation to conventional production of energy. At issue is the act of implementing them in a timely manner. 
Next we must look at oil, gas, coal, and hydrogen and biofuels. Biofuels and hydrogen are included with fossil fuels because while they are renewable, they do create emissions or generate emissions in their production and use. Bloom boxes will also be included in this section for the same reason. Hydrocarbon based fuels, or fossil fuels, are stores of complex hydrocarbon chains in solid, liquid, or gaseous form that took millions of years to generate. They are stores of carbon captured by plants, and animals, over long periods of time and are, essentially, carbon sinks. Starting with the industrial age, which was fueled at first by coal, man has steadily released vast stores of carbon into the atmosphere whereby there is currently 40% to 100% more carbon in the atmosphere than we have ever known. While the cycle of ice ages and carbon in the atmosphere has gone up and down over long periods of time, man has essentially shocked the atmosphere with such a large amount of carbon that it can be viewed as a major geologic event for the writing of Earth's history. 

Figure 11 

As we can observe, in ice ages carbon in the atmosphere hovers between less than 200 to less than 240 ppm, and at brief maximums of warm ages spikes below 300 ppm closer to 280 ppm of atmospheric CO2. The record recently recorded March 2012: was 394.45 ppm. The rise in CO2 directly coincides with industrial activities of man. 

Figure 12 

There is only one explanation for this and for the dramatic rise in global temperatures and resulting glacial melting and sea level rise, and that is human activity. Now it is possible that such warming can trigger another ice age event, but this as well could have drastic global repercussions. If we look at iron, steel and coal production and crude oil production we can observe the correlating impact upon CO2 levels. We are responsible for the largest release of carbon in many millions of years and can assume we will reach an ecological tipping point.

figure 13

 figure 14 

figure 15

We can see observe a steady rise in atmospheric carbon (CO2) starting in the 1870's, more data from NOAA and other sources confirm, and the use of these fuels has seriously disrupted the natural processes of the Earth's climate. In addition to this, since we have been using oil and coal resources at such a high rate that we have exhausted roughly half of the readily and economically viable available supply, the economies built and reliant upon these sources of energy have been placed in danger of collapse. Since agriculture and industry have come to heavily rely upon fossil fuels, all aspects of modern life are tied in a volatile manner to these resources. The first “shortage” of oil in the modern age was caused by OPEC in the early 70's, and prompted some discussion concerning resource management and fuel economy, but with the exception of Brazil, which turned to sugar based ethanol production, the world went right back to oil use, ignoring the economic dependence and volatility of an oil based economy. 
While, from time to time, fuel economy and conservation and energy efficiency were important social and political issues, in actuality minimum advancements in efficiency and energy saving technologies have been implemented. A reason for this may be that long established industries with vested economic interests in maintaining the status quo work to shape public and political opinions and climates to resist change for fear of loss of profit and power. So the situation has become one where whole societies and economic systems are locked into select sources of fuel and energy and are without the infrastructure or economic ability to make a swift transition to more favorable and stable resource bases. Again, Brazil is benefiting from a transition to sugar based ethanol for automobiles. While The United States has greatly increased ethanol production, it uses corn based fuels which have a much lower rate of return for energy creation/generation. Figure 16 shows recent ethanol production and figure 17 shows rate of return for energy invested to produce ethanol from different sources. We shall discuss the negative aspects of using a valuable food resource, such as corn, for fuel instead of fuel and how that can have adverse consequences.

Figure 16 

As we can see, using corn based ethanol is not efficient and raises food prices, whereas Brazil, using sugar, gets a much better return on the investment. Gasoline has had up to 10% ethanol, originally to boost Octane, mixed in it for years, and new E-85 (15% gasoline/85% ethanol) fuels have been available for a good period of time, but has not been widely implemented as a fuel choice partially due to lack of regulations requiring it or market shifts towards it. Now, looking at oil and agricultural industries in the United States, we can observe them as heavily subsidized and as such vested in economic relationships and policies and practices that may be resistant to change. Large scale agricultural corporations such as ConAgra and ADM start generating revenues from ethanol production, sometimes in cooperation with oil companies, and divert corn harvests to ethanol production, which is not nearly as economical for the consumer as sugar, or possibly switchgrass, to produced ethanol. The result is limited change and no incentive for change away from an oil based economy. While fossil fuel become most costly and depleted their replacement is in danger of being just as costly and unsound as far as resource development and use is concerned. Coal and crude oil based fuels were popular and lucrative to industry because they were cheap and abundant. 

Figure 17

We can look at carbon emitting fuel sources, energy sources, by themselves, or view them all together. We should view them together because they have more in common than than they are unique. The underlying factor is that when consumed they all produce CO2, but the major difference is that coal and oil by far produce the most CO2, and by far pose the biggest danger to humanity and the Earth. Next worst carbon culprit would be natural gas. The difference in biofuels is that they extract carbon from the atmosphere and the use of those fuels simply return what they extracted in their creation. Other fuel sources, such as tar sands and shale oil are difficult and costly to extract and have other environmental consequences, including high emissions of carbon even in production. They require more energy to refine and process, making them unsound energy choices. Now some advancements in hydrocarbon based fuels, such as efficient gas systems and bloom boxes which are highly efficient, still produce emissions, but can be viewed as acceptable sources of energy until zero emission world systems can be implementated. 
So if carbon is to be released for fuel and energy, emphasis should be placed on biofuels and biofuel production which return the maximum yield available for energy invested. It should be noted that a car that runs on electric may not emit carbon, but if coal is used to produce the electric it run on then that electric car is not actually clean. Carbon emissions should be eliminated from first recovered energy source to final energy use. 
So here we are trying to make choices as to what fuels we should use, and when, where, and how we use them. The priority is to systematically eliminate the burning of coal and oil first. The second step would be to greatly reduce then eliminate the use of natural gas. Bio fuels are used in a cyclic loop. They are generated by extracting carbon from the atmosphere, storing that carbon, then releasing it back, and this essentially is a carbon neutral process. Until internal combustion is retired as a means of propulsion and burning coal as a means of electric generation, carbon release from these sources are the greatest threat to humanity and the Earth. Transportation and electric generation fuels must change, and phased out as they are replaced with carbon neutral energy sources. Sustainable and renewable fuels must be heavily invested in and mandated by international law. Clean public transportation in urban and suburban areas must become a priority, and economic incentives to make the transition to clean and sustainable fuel sources must be made with haste. Heavy investments in infrastructure for carbon neutral energy sources and fuel and cheap, clean transportation must be imposed even if forced upon nations and societies. 
Nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, and other renewable sources of energy can be used to process hydrogen and ethanol and bio-diesel, these fuels can then be used primarily for transportation. While the Second Law of Thermodynamics states that energy is lost as it is converted from one form to another, having produced a fuel such as hydrogen from the sun or wind, which are basically free except for cost of equipment and operation, the final cost of such energy produced on a large scale can be expected to be low and compatible with traditional fuel sources. Liquid storage of fuels can be incorporated into existing automotive fueling stations (the existing distribution network) and infrastructure, and electric automobiles can be introduced where transition to clean energy production has been created, provided the source electric is clean and sustainable. 
A major consideration for any strategy is to insure that energy efficiency is a primary focus and objective, and to have this as a starting point. If appliances and vehicles are efficient, they cost less energy to operate, in like manner electric transmission lines and technology should be upgraded and updated. Most of the problems surrounding energy use is in storage, transmission, and efficiency. These things being said, there is no single starting point. All these ideas and stratifies need to be implemented together simultaneously. To wait until things reach tipping points, where all other option are exhausted, or where there is political will or public pressure to make such changes is, simply, waiting too long. 
Therefore, energy strategy does not merely include what types of energy we choose but how we deal with energy in totality, including how we transmit and transport energy, and how we regulate universal standards for best use practices where energy is concerned, how we maintain and regulate our power grid, transportation networks, efficiency standards, and the entire spectrum of how energy is used in our entire society. As hereunto incompletely discussed, energy is the lifeblood and driving force of any culture or civilization. Energy drives industry and modern agriculture like never before. 
Oil is not only used for energy and transportation, but everything from textiles, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers and pesticides, containers and packaging, plastics, and just about every product or tool modern man uses. This fact makes it even more essential that oil be removed as a fuel source and that technologies that produce plastics and other items derived from oil find alternative means of production. We must shift from finite to renewable resources. 
To envision what changes are needed to reach sustainability, let us envision what this kind of world could be like. Let us picture a world where public transportation is widespread, cheap, fast and clean. Let us envision that personal transportation is based on a combination of hybrids, hydrogen and electric propulsion systems. Let us see neighborhoods that are mostly medium density, with neighborhood and roof gardens, white roofing that reflects sunlight and solar panels, solar hot water systems, and neighborhood windmills. Let us see a population that engages in full recycling and where a nominal amount of waste ever makes it to a landfill. Examples of these things are not merely dreams, but are already working and in place in many areas. There are places where trash is processed as if it were a raw material, with all metals, plastics, glass, and paper getting recycled and left over cellulose waste being incorporated into incinerators to produce electric. Examples of these things could be made herein, but they are common knowledge at this point, and to have them widely implemented required several factors, including economic incentive, public education and awareness, compliance by the citizenry and law and regulation promoting and mandating them. Waste processing as described is currently reusing 90% of all waste, and in Europe end-of-life vehicles are processed down to 5% reaching landfills, and 95% being fully recycled. These ideal applications of advanced and progressive civilization are most likely in more advanced industrial and post-industrial societies, yet in many emerging and third world nations electric power and water are being produced and provided by sustainable, Earth-friendly means. Again, it is availability of resources, economics, and need and public will that drive these forms of change. 
In the same manner, the reverse has been true. Political and corporate leaders and whole societies continue to use and abuse resources as if they were in endless supply, pollute and alter the environment, destroying entire ecosystems, mistreating employees, denying whole groups basic human services and rights, even committing genocide. The poppy trade in Afghanistan, abuse of workers in China, human slave trade in India, even the lack of universal health care in the United States all point to factors that bring as much despair as technological innovation brings hope. The focus on energy use or abuse is critical a keystone issue in the world tomorrow hold for humanity. The last energy source we need to discuss is nuclear, and the issues surrounding nuclear power encompass the deepest philosophical questions we must answer as a species if we are to prosper in the next few decades. 
Nuclear power is perhaps the only major source of energy that does not produce CO2 and can be installed perhaps anywhere. The major problem is that it is extremely dangerous and produces waste that remains extremely dangerous for thousands of years, but the upside is that it is clean, cheap, somewhat abundant, and now that nuclear technology is much, much safer than technology which was in use when most plants were built. There have been several major nuclear disasters throughout the world over the last forty years, many of which would never have happened with safeguards that would be industry standard now. Another problem is that many safety standards and regulations are in place that have not been implemented at many nuclear power generating stations. This is the flaw in humanity, that what we know individually and in groups to be right and proper we do not always do. We know nuclear power plants built on recently discovered fault lines are at risk yet we do nothing to insure accidents or Earthquakes will not hurt the environment or kill the plant's neighbors. We deny worst case scenarios and ignore warning signs in ignorance and hubris. Three Mile Island suffered an accident which could have easily been resolved, but those with the information to solve the problems could not call plant operators because there were only two working phone lines. That sounds insane, and perhaps it is, but that is human nature. Nuclear is an option that cannot be ignored and can serve as a bridge to a time when the vast bulk of energy and electricity are produced through sustainable and renewable means, but to do it safely and dispose of waste properly, insuring against terrorism or human error, is the critical issue. 
There are 140 nuclear reactors in the United States, most of them average 40 years old. The fact remain that modern nuclear power can be produced safely, much more safely than plants in current operation and perhaps even less of an environmental threat than modern coal fired plants, yet getting them built in the face of fear and opposition is a difficult task. The shaky ground left by commercial and political interests and public opinion and will and need leave no clear path. Energy production sustains modern life, and the interdependence of all social, commercial, and political systems upon energy and the rising cost of energy demand that the issue be taken seriously and that cheap, clean, sustainable energy become a priority of all humanity, because without energy being reliable the world may easily suffer the outset of another dark ages in which are dangers that threaten not only man, but the ability of the Earth to sustain life itself. Nuclear power can bridge gaps no other power source can, but only if we use it wisely. 
Natural gas is also a bridge fuel. It produces much less CO2 than coal or oil, is abundant, and can be used as a transition energy source until 0 emission, renewable and sustainable energy is universal. There are issues with fracing (fracturing bedrock to release natural gas which creates environmental hazards such as contaminated groundwater). Vehicles that run on CNG produce much less emissions and the fuel is cheap and abundant. In Australia many cars run on CNG and it is an engine package option. 
Benefits of CNG include: 
• Significantly reduce carbon monoxide emissions 
• Reduce nitrogen oxide and volatile organic hydrocarbon emissions by 50% or more 
• Potentially reduce carbon dioxide emissions 25% depending on the source of the natural gas 
• Drastically reduce toxic and carcinogenic pollutants 
As we see, there are many alternatives to how we currently use energy, especially oil and coal., and the high cost of an oil economy and detrimental environmental effects of high CO2 emissions must be dealt with without any delay. We may have already reached a tipping point and even if all emissions were to cease now the damage already done will continue to reshape and damage the planet for decades, perhaps centuries, to come. The idea of a nuclear power plant using excess heat to desalinate seawater, storing off peak power in the form of hydrogen which can power transportation fuel cells, and producing 0 CO2 emissions in the process sounds ideal, but reaching that point is something we will have to wait to see. Currently available technologies can already be used to create a near utopian world, but this will take a fundamental shift in the economics and philosophical beliefs about how we use energy and what our group and individual responsibilities are in how we use Earth's resources. 

Resource Management, Food, and Populations 

 Knowing that energy is critical to the production and transportation of raw materials, foodstuffs, and consumer goods which drive the global economy, and that there is a high carbon cost associated with transportation of food and goods over long distances, there should be a global focus on locally grown and produced foodstuffs and goods. While populations are stable or even declining in many industrial and post-industrial societies (figure 1), the third and emerging world nations will need to institute compulsory population control measures and quotas akin to those seen and practiced in China several decades ago. These underdeveloped nations are producing populations that cannot be sustained and are subject to famine, and to creating instability in the world including revolt and war. 
It is a simple fact that there is no way in which the growth in population can be sustained, and disruptions in agricultural production due to rising costs of oil based agricultural fertilizers and chemicals, loss of arable land due to desertification and sea level rise, and rising costs of energy and transportation, plus complications reasonably expected from war, conflict, and economic collapse almost insure world wide depression, drought, famine, war and conflict, and mass population displacements, causing mass migrations and refugee crisis, insure events of massive starvation or other forms of loss of human life and global habitat destruction. If population rise is not stabilized the demands created by population growth will become unsustainable and when, not if, any serious food shortages due to drought or other reasons occur massive numbers of humans will be subject to mass starvation on scales humanity has never known. Facts that lead to this conclusion (from thinkquest) are as follows:
The World Health Organization estimates that one-third of the world is well-fed, one-third is under-fed one-third is starving- Since you've started reading this 500 to 1,000 people have died of starvation. Over 4 million will die this year. 
• One in twelve people worldwide is malnourished, including 160 million children under the age of 5. United Nations Food and Agriculture 
• The Indian subcontinent has nearly half the world's hungry people. Africa and the rest of Asia together have approximately 40%, and the remaining hungry people are found in Latin America and other parts of the world. Hunger in Global Economy 
• Nearly one in four people, 1.3 billion - a majority of humanity - live on less than $1 per day, while the world's 358 billionaires have assets exceeding the combined annual incomes of countries with 45 percent of the world's people. UNICEF 
• 3 billion people in the world today struggle to survive on US$2/day. 
• In 1994 the Urban Institute in Washington DC estimated that one out of 6 elderly people in the U.S. has an inadequate diet. 
• In the U.S. hunger and race are related. In 1991 46% of African-American children were chronically hungry, and 40% of Latino children were chronically hungry compared to 16% of white children. 
• The infant mortality rate is closely linked to inadequate nutrition among pregnant women. The U.S. ranks 23rd among industrial nations in infant mortality. African-American infants die at nearly twice the rate of white infants. 
• One out of every eight children under the age of twelve in the U.S. goes to bed hungry every night.
 • Half of all children under five years of age in South Asia and one third of those in sub-Saharan Africa are malnourished. Feeding the burgeoning population while preserving or enhancing the quality of the environment is becoming a daunting task, particularly in third world countries (Eswaran et al., 1995). If these facts represent anything it shows how easy a mass starvation event is not only possible, but likely. 
If the entire world used resources in the same manner as the United States it would take the production of four Earths to meet global needs (Earth 2100). First world nations have had a history of being very wasteful with resources, and the behavior of these populations is entrenched and engrained and difficult to change, but the reality of increased global demand for resources due to development and population increase makes the first worlds' level of resource, food, and energy consumption unsustainable, despite advancements in technology, production, and energy and resource thrift strategies. If changes in behavior are not done voluntarily, the reality of supply and demand will force it upon the world's largest energy and resource consumers. It is not a matter of if, but when resources, food, and energy cannot sustain humankind. Global stress in the form of the disasters noted will occur, and acts of terrorism and war, including nuclear, biological or germ, or chemical weapon use, including repercussions such as famine and starvation, collapse of ecosystems, economies, world wide depressions, pandemics, and weather and climate change related events all may occur in varying degrees. 
China and India now account for 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, and the third and emerging world are contributing exponential growth of demand on resources, energy, and food resources as nations remain either impoverished, continue to develop, or both. It is certain that parts of South America, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will endure mass starvation events and tribulations as hereunto discussed, but the degree that these issues will effect Europe, North America, Japan, Australia and other first world nations and regions is still very uncertain. How quickly the first world addresses the issues discussed and makes plans to accommodate the changes which are underway will determine the shape of humanity in this unfolding century. If the first world can greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, energy and resource consumption and manage resource exploitation and use, these nations can act as bellwethers leading the world in sustainable and ecologically sound practices that change humanity's direction from a destructive and wasteful path to a constructive and frugal one. The very technologies and wasteful birth pains of industrial and technological advancement may also be the saving grace of humanity and the Earth. These possible solutions will be discussed later, but what can be reasonably stated here is that available energy, resources, and food have limits which have been and are extremely limited and are now stressed, and that demands on these resources are growing as supplies of them are becoming depleted and possibly exhausted. 
The aspects of resource management we must embrace must be comprehensive and all pervading. They must be applied to all Earth's cultures, nations, and populations in relative compulsory fashion, developed and implemented with all due haste, and work to stabilize then reduce resource exploitation, energy consumption, carbon and greenhouse gas emissions, implement comprehensive recycling of waste, and systematically stabilize then reduce population growth, and simultaneously increase clean and sustainable production of food and energy, including mandating higher levels of energy efficiency, this while constructively dealing with ideological, sociological and political conflicts as proper and necessary regulation and constraints are placed on all resources noted. History has shown that civilizations rise and fall, and it would be naive to assume that modern global civilization is exempt for this historical truth. Wars, famine, energy and food shortages, disease and pandemics, terrorism and other ills are not resigned to man's past but occur with regular frequency, and we must assume that they will be part of our future. 
Our glimmer of hope rests in that advancements in technology can be exploited to create strains of crops, livestock and seafood to make these things drought and disease resistant and overall generally more productive. Science can raise food production to create the ability to feed the world. Advancements in energy technology, production, and efficiency can allow humanity to produce more with less, in cleaner fashion and with less or no emissions, and locally where and where demand is highest. Advancements in recycling and new methods of resource and materials production, such as vegetable oil produced plastics and foams, and fibers, building materials and the like can change how resources are used and managed. 
Envision automobiles made with soy based plastics and foams, naturally grown carbon fibers, and that run on hydrogen, biofuels, CNG, electric, or are hybrids of electric and these cleaner fuels. Picture neighborhoods where homes have solar and wind power, solar hot water systems and which use geothermal heat and cooling, and are efficient and clean. Picture these neighborhoods networked by clean, cheap public transportation, with neighborhood gardens, white reflective roofing or green roofs. Picture African nations that institute public health and birth control, that develop clean water and energy as they lift themselves out of poverty, and emerging nations like China, Brazil, India and others becoming developed and industrialized without laying waste to the environment and without producing massive amounts of greenhouse gasses. Examples are already a reality, just not commonplace. 
The problem with getting changes that are needed underway on the scale they are needed is rooted in several factors. First, people, in groups or individually, are slow to change. It may take a serious crisis before these problems are taken seriously. Next, there is a serious lack of public understanding, awareness, or high enough level of education in general for most societies and population groups to even grasp the ideas, or accept them, as laid out herein. Education levels in societies create the climate for the development of social conscience, which is needed to generate public will which drives change and compels governments of those societies to create laws and regulations and market demand that are needed to drive and implement these changes. Unless funded by taxes and fees, government grant or program, market demand or benevolence new technologies and systems will not take place. Simply put, making changes to how we use energy or creating things like wind farms, solar farms, new and revamped power plants, massive changes to fuel infrastructures and distribution networks, and widespread clean and efficient public transportation projects require large amounts of money to implement. They must be funded, there must be incentives and/or mandates. To insure global compliance the largest world nations must cooperate. To insure resources, food production and distribution, population control, and growth and development management are guided and regulated well means international cooperation by treaty and international law and regulation. The market alone will not guide the creation of vehicles to a clean and sustainable and renewable fuel source while older and dirty forms of energy continue to be subsidized or while vested interests work, economically or politically, to resist change. Our long term addiction to crude oil and coal are by far the best examples of how change is resisted. 
The demands placed of resources by growing populations in the third world will create massive strains on ecosystems. As resources become more scarce or run out and are not available the natural and ecological systems of these nations will be exploited when these populations become desperate to survive. Until women are more empowered in the third world they will continue to have large numbers of offspring. Even if first and emerging world nations are surviving harsh times created by energy and food shortages, when the large populations growing in the third world and the poorest and most stressed populations of all nations will make large scale migrations, will generate conflict and terrorism, and they will burn every tree available for food, exhaust every food source, and utterly wrought havoc upon many areas of the Earth further compounding the problems destine to unfold. 

Water 

Water is life, and is as important as energy, but the water issue is more dependent upon energy than energy is dependent upon water. Water is discussed separately from other resources listed above because it has unique circumstances surrounding it. Water is reused and fresh water stems from what is known as the water cycle, which is contingent upon precipitation. For example, rains and glacial melt feed six of the largest rivers in Asia that run mostly through China and India and are needed to hydrate the agricultural production of those areas that feed nearly three billion people. As these populations grow, if reductions or disruptions of available water to that region occur, disaster in the form of drought and famine may place millions of people in distress. With global warming and climate change, vastly accelerated by human activity, loss of meltwater which feeds these Asian rivers could greatly reduce the ability of those regions to produce food. Availability of water is tied to projections of population growth and desertification. The causes of stressed systems (Virmani et al., 1994) are numerous and include removal of nutrients, development of acidity, salinization, alkalization, destruction of soil structure, accelerated wind and water erosion and loss of organic matter. In some regions of the world, the combination of some or all of these results in such degradation that the term desertification is popularly used to describe these regions (UNEP, 1992).

 Figure 18 

 figure 19

Availability of water it directly tied to demands from development, industrialization, and population growth, and compounding this is desertification, because climate change and mismanagement of resources, poor agricultural practices, development and deforestation reduce the capacity of the land to prevent runoff and store water. In figure 20 we see areas that are at risk and these areas overlap with areas where populations are growing and in nations that do not have the wealth, infrastructure, or ability to deal with the situation that is unfolding and growing worse at a steady pace. If populations suffer a stress event such as famine, desperation can cause populations to devastate and exhaust whole regions, producing ecological collapse of numerous areas. These likely events would be game changers and there is no contingency to deal with such events. An overlay of world population and expected population growth maps shows that these populations often are located in these “at risk” zones. 
Optimistic and pessimistic projections exist, but the reality will likely be a mix of some areas which work progressively to solve these issues and other which do not. In the American West, desalination and drought resistant agricultural strains mixed with water conservation in commercial, residential and agricultural use may create a solution, but in the underdeveloped regions of the third and emerging world solutions may not be found. The idea of wars fought over water and energy, and other resources, is an easy one to accept. The path humanity is on seems to be leading to that as one of many ends. The optimistic view of genetic manipulation of crops, with high yield, drought and pest resistant strains of produce, genetic manipulation of livestock and in aquaculture, and other innovations saving the day and feeding everyone is realistic, but only in limited scale. These adjustments and advancements will not come in time for most regions of the world. Mass starvations, pandemics, and other high human death toll events will have one dark positive result, and that is to lower the demands on all of these resources and assets.

 figure 20 

The population projections in figure 21 give three general predictions of population levels over time: 

figure 21

These three predictions all show population rise over time, however the high projection seems very unlikely as most possible outcomes and current trends and data suggest major large scale population mortality events, but the low and medium predictions show shifts in 2050, and this seems to recognize that something will work to limit or reduce population growth, and availability of food, water and/or energy seem to be the most likely change factors, which could be caused by war, famine, climate change, pandemics, or other causes either singularly or more like in combination with other events. Water may be secondary to energy, but in practical terms only slightly. The problem is generated by a calico matrix which is always in flux, and the solutions must be found and implemented in the same manner. We must be cognizant of how all issues and factors interplay with one-another. 
Growth of genetically modified crops can produce increased yields, and advancements in genetics hold the potential and promise of increasing world food supplies, including fish and seafood stocks in the wild, and in aquaculture, livestock, and in many other areas. A possible drawback remains of having monoculture farming and farming reliant upon petrochemicals, and this is where “green” thinking comes into play. If we envision more locally grown produce, neighborhood and rooftop gardens, high yield and small scale urban farming, genetic diversity in all crop stocks, water resource management and other best use practices, we see a possible solution, but a major problem remains with a steadily increasing population and continued development and industrialization of the emerging and third world. If population and other forms of growth can be stabilized or reduced the stress of increasing demand vanishes and the issue of adequately feeding a steady population can be reasonably addressed. 
As we can see in the graph below, use of genetic engineering is on the rise, especially in the United States which has outpaced the world in production of these crops. Again, monocultural agricultural practices must give way to more diversity in where and how crops are grown and in general how all foodstuffs are produced. 

Figure 22 

The further issue of reducing mortality and added longevity of populations as they rise out of absolute poverty must be offset with population controls that prevent population increases which are not sustainable. We must also look at famine and population loss en masse as a process found in nature, which we have somewhat artificially induced by growing in an unsustainable fashion and abusing our network of ecosystems. Just as we allow hunting of animals like deer to reduce populations to sustainable populations because we have removed predators, which controlled and managed their populations naturally, our ignorance, hubris, lack of foresight, and abuse of resources may come back to haunt us as we create a situation where more demand is on global ecosystem than they can sustain. Figure 23 below shows how genetically engineered crops are being incorporated throughout the world. The lack of introduction of such crops in areas such as Africa and the Middle East clearly show that with their incorporation in those areas yields can improve, and with drought and pest resistant strains how areas that currently do not or cannot produce food may someday be able to, increasing availability of food especially in high stress areas.

figure 23 

Even with these expected advancements in genetics, availability of water and water management is a critical deciding factor in how well world hunger issues are addressed, how sustainable production of food will become, how positive or negative ecosystems are effected, how conflict issues play out, and to what level other stress factors effect the global population, resulting in what levels of demand placed upon our global matrix of all resources unfold. 

Education and Enlightenment 

All things stated, a difficult factor to quantify is how well educated populations, societies, and the myriad of civilizations and governments of the Earth will be in years to come. These factors, and our path, comprised of the sum of all individual paths combined, will rely heavily upon how well educated human populations become. Education creates social conscience, which creates the will to make the changes and sacrifices and generates the work it will require to create a prosperous future for all of humanity. If nations cannot agree to then make changes then a dismal future is assured. With large corporations often dictating how the world economy works and markets and politics driving how growth and resource exploitation and use unfold, it will take comprehensive and universal education to raise awareness of these issues and compel governments to regulate how we address our shared global problems. Further, in third and emerging world nations the destitute must know the importance of conserving scarce resources and managing water and the land which will have to sustain them. It seems unlikely the third world will become that educated. In the first world populations must understand the importance of conservation and sacrifice and compel their political leaders to enact laws and regulations that drive conservation, energy and water efficiency, reduce carbon and greenhouse gas emissions, and reshape the manner in which those civilizations live. 
Other issues such as women's rights and, universal quality healtcare, reproductive health, human rights, and protection of the environment all work together to be perhaps the biggest factor in reducing the steady rise in population which is unsustainable. Education creates the public and political will to enact law and regulation, including incentives and penalties, which can force markets to make “going green” and going sustainable cost effective and profitable. It there is profit in carbon reduction, clean, renewable, and sustainable energy, water and land management, and other factors that benefit humanity then these changes will implemented much more quickly than if they are not. A final benefit of a more educated world population is innovation, which can solve many issues.

Some Final Thoughts 

Idealized visions of our possible futures have been discussed, and we can only imagine what they can be. We do not know if automobiles will be running on electric, hydrogen, CNG, or biofuels, eventually replacing gasoline and diesel. We do not know to what extent coal will be replaced by nuclear, geothermal, solar or wind power for the generation of electric. We do not know what our weather patterns will be or how much sea level will rise as a result of global warming and climate change. We do know that many solutions are being investigated and can assume that there will be a patchwork of these technologies. A “bloom box” uses a fuel source such as CNG and a membrane to produce electric as a fuel cell, and is ten times more efficient than simply burning that same fuel, and the while nuclear has many unresolved issues, it is relatively cheap and produces no emissions. We know that transmission and storage of electric are issues that we must address, and that we can no longer continue doing the same things in the same manner we have become so accustomed to, such as how we use and/or waste power and resources, No one solution exists, so perhaps it will require us to use many different technologies and practices in concert to produce significant overall results to avert the tribulations we can expect to occur. 
If humanity, all peoples in all nations, work together to solve these issues the worst of these transitional times may not be so extreme that humanity is cast into large scale population losses and a possible 21st Century “dark age”. We can picture a world where the first world retreats from wasteful energy and resource consumption and waste, and which creates sustainable, green communities with cheap, clean public transportation and local production of food, water, and energy. We can see the possibility of a world where violence is greatly reduced, especially against women in impoverished nations, and where food is grown in very arid regions, where water and electric are produced by clean, renewable and cost effective means, and where hunger and large starving populations are replaced by healthy, stable populations. We can create a world in which corporations profit more by being sustainable and exhibiting a conscience than by maximizing exploitation of the poor and the Earth and its resources. We can witness oceans that become cleaner and more productive, where drifts of toxic plastics vanish replaced by bio-based plastics, and where seafood stocks are sustainable and bountiful. We can create a world where the progress and welfare of humanity is placed above profit and exploitation, free of war, genocide, and abuse. We must only have the will. 
Any plan to deal with the collapse of civilization must take in to account several key factors. It is somewhat of a natural law that populations of species grow until they overpopulate then exhaust their food supplies and the ability of their ecosystem to sustain them; they suffer starvation events and, with checks and balances which limit their populations, attain maximum sustainable levels; and that these levels tend to fluctuate in response to environmental shifts, such as drought and resulting famine. Humanity has developed technologies and systems which have removed man from many of processes and cyclic systems found in nature, and which have allowed man to reshape or destroy, or create, various environments and ecosystems, some in places man would not naturally be able to survive in, so that we are now finding limits to the unsustainable growth we have known and caused as a species. We can conclude that growth would reach a stopping point caused by over-exploitation and depletion of resources. Civilization collapse has several most noted reasons which we use to explain how such events happen, but the underlying basic reason seems to be rooted in the truth that we suffer food and resource disruptions that we, directly or indirectly, cause. 
The following excerpt from “The Collapse of Complex Societies” by J. Tainter explains aspects of collapse we must consider if we are to grasp the dangers our complex network and matrix of societies and cultures mutually face. This modified excerpt is in outline form, but we can clearly see similarities between past failed civilizations and current civilizations, including the sum total of all inter-related world civilizations. 
What is collapse? 
A society collapses when it displays a rapid, significant loss of an established level of sociopolitical complexity (be it empire or chiefdom). 
• Signs include less of: stratification, occupational specialization, centralized control, regimentation, investment in epiphenomena of civilization, information flows, trading, coordination, political unit territory. 

Historical Examples 

• Western Chou (1122 BC to 771 BC): after decline, barbarian invasions and center losing power. Moved to Eastern Chou but Chinese unity effectively collapsed through Spring and Autumn (770 to 464 BC) and Warring States (463 to 222 BC). Regional states fighting for hegemony, alliances, war, barbarian manipulation until Ch'in. But start of political thought, Hundred Schools and Confucius. 
• Harappa (2400 BC to 1750 BC): highly centralized, organized, regimented; granaries, grid streets, fortresses, drainage / sewage, uniformity → less standardization, reuse of bricks, lower quality construction, art simpler, jewelery hoarding, partitioned rooms, unburied corpses in streets, huts amongst ruins. 
• Mesopotamia. 1st is Akkad, death by rebellions. 2nd is Ur: bureaucracy, irrigation, population growth, power maximization → sudden collapse. Babylon Hittites, Assyrians, etc, then incorporated in empires – growth in complexity / density. From 7th C, decline and collapse by 10th, 11th C AD – occupied area to 6% of 500 years earlier and population lowest in 5000 years. 90% tax revenue lost in lifetime, revolts and ungovernable countryside, mostly nomadic until modern era. 
• Egypt: from 3100 BC, highly centralized, godlike leader, hierarchic bureaucracy. But shift to feudalism in provinces, ruler weaker, wealth of provincials and nobles rose, immense royal construction. From 2181BC, Old Kingdom collapsed, strife, collapse of centralization → independent polities, many rulers with short reigns, looting / killing / burning / anarchy, royal women and bureaucrats disgraced, peasants carried shields as they tilled, trade down, famines, LE down. New 11th Dynasty in 2131 BC restored order, recentralized by 1870BC. 
• Minoans: palaces on islands from 2000BC, science, sanitation, palaces for art / storerooms / control → 1500BC Earthquake, Mycenean competitor + militarism, conquest, 1380BC collapse. 
• Mycenaean Greece: from 1650 BC, Golden Age in 1400 BC, homogeneity in politics / art, independent states centered on palace/citadel complexes (similar to Minoans); 1200 BC palaces destroyed, disaster, instability / mass migrations, writing vanished, uniform pottery simpler and local styles, metalwork simpler, fortifications, iron, water supply through bedrock obtained for citadels, 1050 BC gone, population down 75% to 90%, start of Greek Dark Ages. 
• Western Roman Empire: expansion capped under Augustus (27 BC to 14 AD); Pax Romana decline by 2nd C, barbarians, plague; 3rd C same + civil war / near disintegration; partial restoration of order and further decline to 395 (split), last Emperor deposed in 476 AD. 
• Olmecs: basalt monuments systematically wrecked in violent paroxysms at the end. 
• Maya: lost cities swallowed by jungle chaos (morbid fascination). From Bcs to intensification in 700 AD, Mayan cities public works, arts, temples / palaces, plants – rapid onset of collapse soon after and by 900 AD prior urban life mostly gone and depopulated. 
• MesoAmerican highlands: destruction of monuments (street of the Dead). 
• Chacoans and Hohokam: desert peoples underwent collapse + loss of political centralization. 
• Kachin of highland Burma – 3 societies, gumlao egalitarian, gumsa stratified, shan feudal higher more complex – continued oscillations between these states. 
• Ik of north Uganda – hunter-gathers of lowest sociopolitical complexity. Food, water scarce; no advantage to reciprocity, sharing. So fragmented most activities, including subsistence, pursued individually. Families dysfunctional. Children minimally cared for until 3 years, then set loose and they band into age sets for protection. Villages exist but meaningless as concept.  

After Collapse 

• World, food / fuel / survival, center doesn't hold, bands of survivors scavenge amidst ruins of grandeur, grass in streets, bandit soldiers / police. E.g. Britain civilized and peaceful 100 400 AD, then no public safety, big houses, dwindling townships, all villas / most Roman cities burnt, abandoned, looted, empty. 
• Breakdown of authority and central control – revolts, provincial insubordination, revenues decline, foreign / barbarian success, military ineffective, former political center loses power, prominence, can be ransacked and abandoned, small petty states of former union and civil war. 
• Prolonged lawlessness, but order will be restored, monumental construction / public art cease, literacy decline and dark age, remaining population in urban reuse existing architecture, little new construction / adaptation of existing buildings; rooms subdivided, flimsy facades, public space to private; depreciation, decay, city drifting to new places. 
• Centralized distribution, markets, storages, palaces abandoned, less specialization and long distance trade → local self-sufficiency. Local, simpler styles (scope reduction), as complex machines can no longer be maintained. 
• Mass depopulation.
• “In a complex society that has collapsed, it would thus appear, the overarching structure that provides support services to the population loses capability or disappears entirely” (state = monopoly on law, money, violence). No external defense / internal order, public works, big organization. Competition with former economic and political partners. “The world as seen from any locality perceptibly shrinks, and over the horizon lies the unknown”. 
Tainter's outline reinforces and makes very clear several points made throughout this discussion. There is a general consensus throughout the scientific community concerning the reality of climate change and global warming and the cause of these being human activity. There are sound forecasts and predictions concerning the perils facing humanity and the Earth as a result of population growth, climatic issues, and depletion and availability of resources. At the outset, some perspectives which may have seem irreverent to this discussion were noted, but where science already exists perspective on the information presented seems clearly more important. We must recognize that, in the grand scheme of the Universe, or “Creation”, that humanity and even our own Milky Way are somewhat insignificant. If humanity, or even all life upon the Earth, were to cease the loss would be isolated to one little speck of the larger “everything”; but what makes this all bigger than ourselves is how rare life seems to be in the Universe. Our observations of other solar systems and stars show us that Earth has life due to unique, rare, and fragile conditions. Even with the vastness of “Creation”, life, especially complex life with sentient life forms, is so amazing rare that the protection of it should be the greatest concern of any thinking living thing that is sustained by it. If we consider history in both long and short terms, it behooves humanity to act in its' own best interests doing whatever work and make whatever sacrifices it, we, needs to as a species to preserve and protect the Earth and the ecosystems that sustains all life. 
The sociology and philosophy surrounding the sciences which need to be employed to take the steps necessary to create a productive, sustainable future are lacking, and these disciplines need to be refined to influence, educate and motivate populations, societies, nations, corporations, and all the private, corporate, political, religious, military and social groups and sub-groups that haphazardly guide humanity's path. Education, as discussed earlier, is the most influential factor needed to insure global cooperation in the creation and implementation of problem solving strategies. Energy resource management is the most critical of all resource management concerns, followed by availability of water and population control. None of these concerns can be approached by themselves, but rather must be networked and how they are addressed and revised on a global scale. It is unlikely that global treaties, agreements, laws, regulations, and programs will be initiated until these problems have grown even further, and at this point most nations cannot even reach consensus on basic issues even when they state they have positions which are in agreement. Without agreements on how to work to reach solutions, solutions will remain elusive. These facts suggest that the impetus for change will be disaster and collapse.
We can assume worst case scenarios, and we should expect them to unfold, but if we allow these assumptions to cripple us into a lack of action we doom ourselves even further. If instead we work to rebuild and reshape our cities and urban centers, change how we use energy, water and other resources, learn to rethink how we transport ourselves, and learn to incorporate sustainable means of production, consumption and re-use of resources; if we do these things, and we work to guide the development of third and emerging nations into clean and renewable forms of energy and enlightened resource management, and limit and control their growth and development, humanity stands a chance of mitigating the worst of the transitional period which will unfold upon us. A new dark age may possibly dawn, but a new age of enlightenment and prosperity may emerge with it, or shortly following it. 
The complexity of the matrix of the myriad, or web, of issues and problems humanity now faces is exceedingly vast, and change will more likely be nudged slowly than casually guided along. Collapse distress events will occur suddenly and will initially have adverse effects on world systems. The third world is more in danger than emerging nations, and emerging nations at more risk than post-industrial and first world nations, but collapse can occur in cascade fashion and turn first world nations into third world nations within months. Cities with populations in the millions such as Bangalore, Mumbai, and Delhi in India, Kinshasa and Lagos in Africa, São Paulo and Bogota in South America, five cities in China with populations in excess of ten million and numerous other urban areas with large and growing populations that heavily depend on external resources to sustain the most basic needs of their citizenry are already at great risk and often are in great distress. Any major disruptions to the flow of resources would have adverse repercussions that could cause a cascade effect, throwing the world into turmoil, including not only stressed and underserved third world cities but first world cities that otherwise would not normally be at such great risk. The complexity of modern societies which gave so much prosperity is also the factor which places complex societies at such great risk. The hope is that these societies and nations will make themselves sustainable enough to maintain production of energy, food, and water, and that those things which make a society a civilized one remain in place. This is why energy is so critical, because it above all other resources is depended upon for production of water, food, and more. 
We have the ability to motivate and mobilize to reshape our society into a sustainable one, and if the first world works to make these changes before successive series of global systems collapses occurs, then our future may be not as bad as doomsayers predict. The certainty is that harsh times await the Earth and humanity, and that knowing these dangers that facing them will take enlightened and motivated populations creating the social, philosophical, commercial and political demands to give humanity the incentive to change, and hopefully survive then prosper.